IFS maps America’s marriage deserts and marriage gardens

The Institute for Family Studies has released a new report and interactive maps showing stark differences in marriage patterns across U.S. communities, with a 60-point gap between the strongest and weakest areas. The findings point to major divides between urban cores and suburbs, and suggest marriage is closely tied to where children are growing up.

Why it matters: - The report maps where married family life is concentrated and where it has nearly disappeared across U.S. communities of about 135,000 people. - The findings show a 60 percentage point gap between the country’s strongest marriage areas and its weakest, highlighting how sharply family structure varies by place. - The data also connect marriage patterns to child outcomes, since communities with more married families also tend to have more children growing up in married two-parent homes.

What happened: - The Institute for Family Studies released Marriage Deserts: Mapping America’s Family Divide on October 8, 2026. - The report and interactive maps were produced by Chris Bullivant and Ken Burchfiel. - The analysis uses 2020 Census data. - The project groups U.S. areas into “marriage deserts” and “marriage gardens” based on marriage prevalence and the share of children growing up in married two-parent homes.

The details: - In the largest marriage deserts, only 13% to 17% of working-age householders are married. - In the marriage gardens, 74% to 79% of couples are married. - In the largest married-family deserts, fewer than 1 in 4 households with children are headed by married couples. - In married-family gardens, nearly 9 in 10 households with children are headed by married couples. - Married-family gardens have roughly twice the share of households with children as married-family deserts. - The report says that pattern fits prior research linking marriage to fertility. - Marriage deserts cluster in urban cores across the Midwest, Northeast and South. - Marriage gardens are more common in suburbs and exurbs, with Texas and Utah standing out. - Some of the biggest marriage gardens sit in the suburbs of nearby urban marriage deserts. - California, Illinois, Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania contain both the country’s largest deserts and its largest gardens.

Between the lines: - The geographic split suggests marriage patterns are shaped by more than income alone. - Ken Burchfiel said around 11% of the areas studied have fewer than 33% of householders ages 15-64 who are married, while another 10% have at least 61% married householders. - Burchfiel said some affluent places, including parts of Washington, D.C. and Manhattan, still have surprisingly low marriage rates, pointing to culture as a major factor.

What’s next: - The interactive maps are now available as part of the report, giving researchers and policymakers a way to compare marriage patterns across regions. - The Institute for Family Studies said the project is meant to support evidence-based public education on marriage and family life.

The bottom line: - America’s marriage landscape is deeply uneven, with urban cores and suburban rings often sitting on opposite ends of the family-structure divide.